Shifting into High Gear: The Global EV Prospects

Despite economic headwinds and policy uncertainty, the electric vehicle (EV) revolution continues to accelerate. This is confirmed at the launch of the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Global EV Outlook 2025, where Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol unveiled data showing record-breaking global EV sales in 2024. The figure stands at 17 million units sold, up 25% from the previous year, along with a projection that the 2025 figure will surpass 20 million. This would mean that more than one in four new cars sold worldwide will be electric, a pivotal milestone as the auto sector transitions away from fossil fuels.

THE GLOBAL EV PROSPECTS

When it comes to EVs, China remains the epicenter of this growth, responsible for two-thirds of global EV sales last year and expected to hit 14 million units in 2025. Notably, two-thirds of EVs sold in China are already cheaper than conventional cars, thanks to falling battery prices and intense market competition. Meanwhile, emerging economies such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil are witnessing exponential growth, with EV market shares climbing rapidly. The report credits this to improved affordability, increasing imports (particularly from China), and domestic industrial policy support.

CHALLENGING OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD

Still, the global EV trajectory is shaped by more than just market forces. The IEA highlighted three critical determinants: industrial and trade policies, innovation in battery technology and charging infrastructure, and the geographic concentration of critical minerals. EVs are already helping slow global oil demand growth while adding new pressure on electricity grids. The IEA emphasized that charging with electricity remains more cost-effective than fueling with gasoline; this still holds even if oil prices drop significantly across all major markets.

Challenges remain, especially for Europe and the U.S., where conventional cars are still often cheaper upfront. But the report also notes progress in fast-charging infrastructure, technological breakthroughs in battery performance, and emerging cost parity in electric trucks for high-mileage use cases. Looking ahead to 2030, the IEA projects that over 40% of global car sales will be electric, with China potentially hitting 80%. As things stand now, the global car industry is at a turning point; as “data always wins,” this data points to an increasingly electric future.

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